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W7EES > SWPC 18.01.19 20:15l 49 Lines 1630 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6992_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<N3HYM<NS2B<KE0GB<KM8V<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190106/1505Z 6992@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 547 km/s at 05/1451Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 04/2145Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 04/2207Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (07 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (08 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 071
Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 071/070/070
90 Day Mean 05 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 010/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/25/10
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