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W7EES > SWPC 11.02.19 19:37l 47 Lines 1672 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7215_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<K9CTB<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190114/2328Z 7215@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 410 km/s at 14/0707Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
14/0114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
14/0115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 583 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Jan, 16 Jan)
and quiet levels on day three (17 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 070
Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 14 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 007/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/10
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