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W7EES > SWPC 12.02.19 21:47l 48 Lines 1686 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7243_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<LU3DVN<LU4ECL<AB0AF<KF5JRV<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190116/0151Z 7243@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 15/2018Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 15/1805Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
15/1904Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 214 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 070
Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 15 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 008/008-006/006-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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