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W7EES > SWPC 14.02.19 21:15l 47 Lines 1600 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7294_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<JA0BXP<NA7KR<ZL2BAU<N9PMO<N9LYA<
W7EES
Sent: 190117/2229Z 7294@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 17/2014Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 17/1340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
17/1408Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 070
Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 17 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 006/006-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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