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W7EES > SWPC 21.02.19 21:49l 47 Lines 1619 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7385_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<N3HYM<KF5JRV<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190122/0055Z 7385@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 366 km/s at 20/2136Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
20/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
21/0751Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Jan), quiet to active levels on day
two (23 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (24 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 070
Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 21 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 006/005-013/018-019/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/35/40
Minor Storm 01/20/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/60/60
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