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W7EES > SWPC 01.04.19 18:02l 49 Lines 1683 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8229_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW2OHX<UA6ADV<CX2SA<N3HYM<NS2B<VA7RBP<GB7YEW<W9ABA<
N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190314/0409Z @:W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM #:8229 BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 372 km/s at 13/0029Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
13/1914Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
13/1828Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 464 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Mar, 16
Mar) and quiet to active levels on day two (15 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 071
Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 070/070/068
90 Day Mean 13 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 009/008-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/10
Minor Storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 10/30/20
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