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W7EES > SWPC 02.04.19 20:45l 47 Lines 1684 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8260_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<KF5JRV<W9JUN<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190316/1344Z 8260@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s at 15/1358Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 15/0601Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
15/0124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 276 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Mar, 17 Mar)
and quiet levels on day three (18 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 070
Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 15 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 007/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/25/15
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