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W7EES > SWPC 17.04.19 17:28l 51 Lines 1694 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8714_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<N9PMO<VE1MPF<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190416/2240Z 8714@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 405 km/s at 16/1026Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 16/0233Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/0144Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1770 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19
Apr).
III. Event probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Apr 074
Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 074/074/072
90 Day Mean 16 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
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