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W7EES > SWPC 24.04.19 21:04l 49 Lines 1701 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8806_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<N3HYM<N3IP<KQ0I<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190422/2340Z 8806@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 407 km/s at 22/1925Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
22/0406Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/0533Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 211 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (24 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 069
Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 22 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 005/005-007/008-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/25
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 15/20/30
Major-severe storm 15/20/30
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