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W7EES > SWPC 26.04.19 20:54l 48 Lines 1684 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8824_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<N3IP<KA3BVJ<AB0AF<KQ0I<W9ABA<
N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190423/2317Z 8824@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 395 km/s at 23/0624Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
23/2013Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
23/1847Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 268 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (24 Apr, 26
Apr) and quiet to active levels on day two (25 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Apr 069
Predicted 24 Apr-26 Apr 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 23 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr 004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 007/008-012/015-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/20
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 20/30/20
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