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W7EES > SWPC 09.09.19 20:01l 50 Lines 2019 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10697_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<GB7YEW<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<
W7EES
Sent: 190812/0012Z 10697@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug, 14 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 11/0938Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 11/1509Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
11/1034Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 11486 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Aug 068
Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 11 Aug 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 009/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/05
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