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W7EES > SWPC 09.09.19 20:02l 47 Lines 1879 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10837_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<F3KT<CX2SA<N3HYM<
KC9VYU<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190819/2258Z 10837@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 387 km/s at 19/0311Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 662 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (20 Aug,
21 Aug, 22 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 068
Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 19 Aug 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 007/007-007/007-006/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
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