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W7EES > SWPC 09.09.19 20:02l 49 Lines 1968 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10857_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IQ5KG<IK1NHL<CX2SA<N3HYM<KF5JRV<W9JUN<
W7EES
Sent: 190821/0349Z 10857@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug, 23 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 433 km/s at 20/1940Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
20/0714Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
20/0134Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 535 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug, 23
Aug).
III. Event probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Aug 067
Predicted 21 Aug-23 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 20 Aug 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 006/006-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/05/05
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