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W7EES > SWPC 09.09.19 20:05l 47 Lines 1912 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10953_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IK1NHL<CX2SA<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190826/0011Z 10953@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 999 km/s at 25/1526Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 404 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (26 Aug, 27 Aug) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Aug 066
Predicted 26 Aug-28 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 25 Aug 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 007/010-014/016-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 35/20/15
Major-severe storm 35/30/05
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