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CX2SA > SWPC 05.05.15 23:22l 63 Lines 2320 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20209_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150505/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:20209 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:20209_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 May 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
05/1724Z from Region 2335 (S16E11). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May,
08 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 412 km/s at
05/1227Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/1657Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/0852Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 130 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (06 May, 07 May) and
quiet levels on day three (08 May).
III. Event probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May 128
Predicted 06 May-08 May 135/140/145
90 Day Mean 05 May 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 013/015-010/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 45/30/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
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