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CX2SA > SWPC 06.05.15 23:22l 62 Lines 2259 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20240_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150506/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:20240 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:20240_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 May 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
05/2211Z from Region 2339 (N12E70). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(07 May, 08 May, 09 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 511 km/s at 06/0735Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 06/0615Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 06/1216Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 May) and quiet levels on
days two and three (08 May, 09 May).
III. Event probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M 55/60/60
Class X 10/15/15
Proton 01/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 136
Predicted 07 May-09 May 145/150/150
90 Day Mean 06 May 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 011/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 019/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 011/012-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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