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W7EES > SWPC 11.12.19 01:42l 49 Lines 1967 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 12842_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<N3HYM<N9LCF<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 191210/2329Z 12842@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 476 km/s at 10/1617Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
10/0430Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
10/0422Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 109 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13
Dec).
III. Event probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Dec 071
Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 10 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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