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W7EES > SWPC 12.12.19 02:42l 48 Lines 1894 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 12864_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<N9PMO<WH6FQE<KC9VYU<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 191212/0116Z 12864@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 11/0635Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 11/0214Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
11/0218Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14
Dec).
III. Event probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 071
Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 11 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/25
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