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W7EES > SWPC 15.12.19 14:42l 48 Lines 1881 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 12929_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<N3HYM<KF5JRV<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 191215/1257Z 12929@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 411 km/s at 14/2019Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
14/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
13/2353Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17
Dec).
III. Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 070
Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 14 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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