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W7EES > SWPC 01.03.20 23:25l 61 Lines 2348 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 14133_W7EES
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Sent: 200208/0007Z 14133@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
>From w7ees%w7ees.or.usa.noam@i0ojj.ampr.org Sat Feb 8 02:30:50 2020
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 682 km/s at 07/0212Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 07/0109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
07/0109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 829 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 071
Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 07 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 013/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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