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BID : 9713_LU9DCE
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Subj: SOLAR GEO ACTIVITY 19 02
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IQ5KG<I0OJJ<N6RME<YT7MPB<LU1DBQ<LU9DCE
Sent: 200219/0401Z 9713@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2020 Feb 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb, 21 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 18/1509Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 18/1403Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
18/1404Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 183 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (19 Feb), unsettled
to active levels on day two (20 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (21
Feb).
III. Event probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Feb 071
Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 18 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 015/022-015/018-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/20
Minor Storm 20/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 60/50/25
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All say, "How hard it is that we have to die"--a strange complaint to come
from the mouths of people who have had to live.
-- Mark Twain, "Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar"
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