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W7EES > SWPC 05.03.20 02:31l 63 Lines 2352 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 15146_W7EES
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Sent: 200305/0107Z 15146@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
>From w7ees%w7ees.or.usa.noam@i0ojj.ampr.org Thu Mar 5 02:27:23 2020
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 425 km/s at 03/2254Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 04/1714Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
04/1613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 388 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 070
Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 04 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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