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LU9DCE > SOLAR 11.03.20 05:10l 69 Lines 2706 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11200_LU9DCE
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Subj: SOLAR GEO ACTIVITY 11 03
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 200311/0401Z 11200@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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CYGWIN - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2020 Mar 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 367 km/s at 10/0022Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
09/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
10/0314Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 137 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Mar 071
Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 10 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/15
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
To err is human, but when the eraser wears out before the pencil, you're
overdoing it a little.
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