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W7EES > SWPC 20.03.20 15:45l 49 Lines 1990 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 15552_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6IHL<IK7NXU<HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IQ5KG<IK1NHL<CX2SA<
N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 200320/1410Z 15552@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar, 22 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 19/0730Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 19/0728Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
19/0029Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 212 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (20 Mar,
21 Mar, 22 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 072
Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 19 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 007/008-007/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/25
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