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CX2SA > SWPC 10.05.15 23:22l 62 Lines 2260 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20370_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150510/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:20370 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:20370_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 May 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
10/1711Z from Region 2339 (N13E08). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May,
13 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
430 km/s at 10/0830Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 10/1749Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 10/2000Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 May) and unsettled to
minor storm levels on days two and three (12 May, 13 May).
III. Event probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 160
Predicted 11 May-13 May 160/165/160
90 Day Mean 10 May 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 009/012-017/025-019/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/40
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 45/60/60
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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