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W7EES > SWPC 05.04.20 01:07l 49 Lines 2013 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 15888_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IK1NHL<CX2SA<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 200404/2358Z 15888@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr, 07 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 04/0238Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 03/2324Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/2113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 448 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Apr 070
Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 04 Apr 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 006/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/10/10
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