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W7EES > SWPC 01.05.20 15:17l 47 Lines 1867 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 16072_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0PBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 200416/2332Z 16072@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 459 km/s at 16/0132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 193 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19
Apr).
III. Event probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Apr 069
Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 16 Apr 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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