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LW3DBH > SOLAR 01.05.20 15:17l 68 Lines 2516 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 62147_LW3DBH
Read: GUEST
Subj: SOLAR GEO ACTIVITY 18 04
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LW3DBH
Sent: 200419/0108Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:62147 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:62147_LW
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : SOLAR@WW
_ __ _______ ____ ____ _ _
| |\ \ / /___ /| _ \| __ )| | | | BBS
| | \ \ /\ / / |_ \| | | | _ \| |_| | MORENO
| |__\ V V / ___) | |_| | |_) | _ | ARGENTINA
|_____\_/\_/ |____/|____/|____/|_| |_|
======================================================================
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2020 Apr 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (19 Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 355 km/s at 18/1239Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
17/2302Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
18/0039Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 134 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (19 Apr), quiet to active levels on day
two (20 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Apr 070
Predicted 19 Apr-21 Apr 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 18 Apr 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr 006/005-009/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/20
Minor Storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 10/40/30
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Rule of Life #1 -- Never get separated from your luggage.
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