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W7EES > SWPC 15.05.20 04:38l 47 Lines 1867 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17136_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IW2OHX<I0BLC<GB7CIP<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 200515/0134Z 17136@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 May, 16 May, 17 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 308 km/s at 14/0029Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 May, 16 May, 17
May).
III. Event probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 068
Predicted 15 May-17 May 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 14 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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