| | LW3DBH > SOLAR 18.05.20 02:20l 73 Lines 2502 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: SOLAR GEO ACTIVITY 17 05
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Sent: 200518/0110Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:65524 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:65524_LW
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : SOLAR@WW
_ __ _______ ____ ____ _ _
| |\ \ / /___ /| _ \| __ )| | | | BBS
| | \ \ /\ / / |_ \| | | | _ \| |_| | MORENO
| |__\ V V / ___) | |_| | |_) | _ | ARGENTINA
|_____\_/\_/ |____/|____/|____/|_| |_|
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2020 May 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 May, 19 May, 20 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 321 km/s at 16/2148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 194 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (18 May,
19 May, 20 May).
III. Event probabilities 18 May-20 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 May 070
Predicted 18 May-20 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 17 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 005/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/25/25
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Performance:
A statement of the speed at which a computer system works. Or rather,
might work under certain circumstances. Or was rumored to be working
over in Jersey about a month ago.
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