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W7EES > SWPC 18.05.20 02:20l 47 Lines 1880 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17288_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<GB7CIP<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 200518/0001Z 17288@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 May, 19 May, 20 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 321 km/s at 16/2148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 194 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (18 May,
19 May, 20 May).
III. Event probabilities 18 May-20 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 May 070
Predicted 18 May-20 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 17 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 005/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/25/25
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