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CX2SA > SWPC 13.05.15 23:23l 65 Lines 2380 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20511_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150513/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:20511 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:20511_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 May 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
13/1818Z from Region 2345 (N16W16). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May,
16 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 759 km/s at 13/2056Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 13/0207Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 12/2340Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2
pfu at 12/2235Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 May), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (15 May) and quiet levels on day three (16
May).
III. Event probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 May 157
Predicted 14 May-16 May 155/150/150
90 Day Mean 13 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 016/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 032/046
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 018/025-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/10
Minor Storm 20/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 50/40/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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