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CX2SA > SWPC 14.05.15 23:22l 64 Lines 2384 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20540_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150514/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:20540 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:20540_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 May 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
14/0731Z from Region 2339 (N11W45). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
May, 16 May, 17 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
802 km/s at 14/0105Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/2229Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/2006Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4130 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 May), quiet to active
levels on day two (16 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (17 May).
III. Event probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 145
Predicted 15 May-17 May 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 14 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 025/041
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 010/012-010/010-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/30
Minor Storm 10/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/35/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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