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CX2SA > SWPC 16.05.15 00:00l 62 Lines 2256 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20580_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IW7BFZ<I3XTY<I0OJJ<VE3UIL<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 150515/2249Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:20580 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:20580_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 May 15 2230 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
15/0011Z from Region 2342 (N17W22). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
May, 17 May, 18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
639 km/s at 14/2136Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 8787 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (16 May, 18 May)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (17 May).
III. Event probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 137
Predicted 16 May-18 May 135/125/115
90 Day Mean 15 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 010/010-016/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/30
Minor Storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 35/45/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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