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W7EES > SWPC 22.09.20 01:37l 53 Lines 2031 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22998_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IW2OHX<UA6ADV<CX2SA<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 200921/2356Z @:W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM #:22998 BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Sep, 23 Sep, 24 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 323 km/s at 21/2042Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
20/2247Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
21/1700Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 177 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (23 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Sep 071
Predicted 22 Sep-24 Sep 071/072/074
90 Day Mean 21 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 006/005-008/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/30
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/25/40
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