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W7EES > SWPC 25.09.20 02:32l 48 Lines 2031 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23212_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 200925/0028Z 23212@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 535 km/s at 24/0853Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 24/0240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 24/0453Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1232 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (25 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 074
Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 24 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 017/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 013/018-014/016-012/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/40
Minor Storm 20/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 50/45/60
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