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CX2SA > SWPC 17.05.15 23:22l 62 Lines 2337 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20644_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150517/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:20644 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:20644_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 May 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one and two (18 May, 19 May) and expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (20 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 428 km/s at
17/0716Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/2057Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/1617Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9241 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (18 May, 19 May) and
quiet levels on day three (20 May).
III. Event probabilities 18 May-20 May
Class M 10/10/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 May 120
Predicted 18 May-20 May 115/105/095
90 Day Mean 17 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 012/015-010/012-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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