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W7EES > SWPC 08.11.20 04:47l 50 Lines 2005 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24541_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<I3XTY<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IQ5KG<IK1NHL<CX2SA<N3HYM<IV3BVK<IK5FKA<
PE1RRR<N9LYA<W9JUN<N7TRY<W7EES
Sent: 201108/0127Z 24541@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 541 km/s at 07/0416Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
07/0250Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
07/0651Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 967 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10
Nov).
III. Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 091
Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 092/092/090
90 Day Mean 07 Nov 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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