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W7EES > SWPC 09.11.20 04:07l 53 Lines 2120 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24561_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<VK2RZ<W0ARP<KF5JRV<N9LCF<W9GM<GB7YEW<VK2IO<PE1RRR<
N9LYA<W9JUN<N7TRY<W7EES
Sent: 201109/0212Z 24561@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
08/0115Z from Region 2781 (S23E03). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 07/2336Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 08/1632Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
08/0510Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 980 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11
Nov).
III. Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 090
Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 090/088/086
90 Day Mean 08 Nov 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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