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W7EES > SWPC 12.11.20 05:12l 53 Lines 2137 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24616_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<I3XTY<IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<GB7CIP<JE7YGF<XE1FH<W9ABA<N9LYA<W9JUN<
N7TRY<W7EES
Sent: 201112/0114Z 24616@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
11/1912Z from Region 2782 (S31E64). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Nov,
13 Nov, 14 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 354 km/s at 11/1939Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
11/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/1936Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2248 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Nov 088
Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 11 Nov 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 007/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
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