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CX2SA > SWPC 18.05.15 23:23l 63 Lines 2338 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20672_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150518/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:20672 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:20672_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 May 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
18/0821Z from Region 2349 (S20E34). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 May,
20 May, 21 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
486 km/s at 18/1918Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 18/2059Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 18/1927Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4939 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 May) and quiet levels on
days two and three (20 May, 21 May).
III. Event probabilities 19 May-21 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 May 115
Predicted 19 May-21 May 110/108/105
90 Day Mean 18 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 May 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May 009/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May 010/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May-21 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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