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W7EES > SWPC 24.11.20 03:30l 48 Lines 2071 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24854_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<VE2PKT<PE1RRR<N9LYA<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 201124/0108Z 24854@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (24 Nov) and likely to be low with a slight chance for
an M-class flare on days two and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 619 km/s at 23/0245Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2400 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Nov, 25 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M 10/10/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Nov 096
Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 098/100/100
90 Day Mean 23 Nov 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 019/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 009/010-009/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/25
Minor Storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/45/40
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