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W7EES > SWPC 05.12.20 02:15l 54 Lines 2132 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25058_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<SR4BBX<SR1BSZ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<EC5W<PE1RRR<
K5DAT<W0ARP<KF5JRV<W9JUN<N9PMO<VE1MPF<W9ABA<N9LYA<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 201204/2355Z 25058@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest flare was a C1 at 03/2359Z from Region 2790. There are
currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (05 Dec) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and
three (06 Dec, 07 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 449 km/s at 03/2330Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
04/1157Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
04/1644Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 553 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07
Dec).
III. Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 096
Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 094/092/088
90 Day Mean 04 Dec 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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