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W7EES > SWPC 17.12.20 17:25l 49 Lines 2044 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25281_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK5FKA<IK5FKA<PE1RRR<W8EDU<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 201217/0153Z 25281@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 294 km/s at 16/1150Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
16/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
15/2358Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 245 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 082
Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 16 Dec 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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