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W7EES > SWPC 24.12.20 03:00l 50 Lines 2096 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25350_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<VE2PKT<OK2PEN<N1URO<W9JUN<N7TRY<W7EES
Sent: 201223/2354Z 25350@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 644 km/s at 23/1007Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 23/0346Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/0223Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 550 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Dec), quiet to
active levels on day two (25 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (26 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Dec 086
Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 086/088/088
90 Day Mean 23 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 015/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 018/022-011/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/20
Minor Storm 30/15/05
Major-severe storm 10/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 65/45/25
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