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W7EES > SWPC 14.01.21 18:40l 45 Lines 1634 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25826_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK5FKA<IK5FKA<N3HYM<N9LCF<W9JUN<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 210113/2358Z 25826@W7EES.#NWOR.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.21
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 480 km/s at 13/0405Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
12/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/1051Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16
Jan).
III. Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 073
Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 073/074/075
90 Day Mean 13 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
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