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W7EES > SWPC 19.01.21 17:47l 46 Lines 1721 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26002_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0PBR<OK2PEN<CX2SA<N3HYM<N9LCF<W9JUN<
N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 210119/1354Z 26002@W7EES.#NWOR.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.21
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 312 km/s at 18/2053Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
18/1905Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
18/2018Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 398 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Jan, 20 Jan) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 075
Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 077/082/085
90 Day Mean 18 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 011/012-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/15
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 55/45/25
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