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W7EES > SWPC 20.02.21 21:17l 46 Lines 1728 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26532_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 210220/0157Z 26532@W7EES.#NWOR.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.21
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 539 km/s at 19/2037Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 19/1959Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
19/2034Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 202 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (20 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (21 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (22 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 073
Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 19 Feb 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 015/018-009/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 50/40/30
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