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CX2SA > SWPC 21.05.15 23:23l 63 Lines 2289 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20786_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150521/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:20786 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:20786_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 May 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
21/0706Z from Region 2349 (S21W10). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 May,
23 May, 24 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 468 km/s at
21/1022Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 20/2106Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 21/1130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 146 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 May, 23 May, 24
May).
III. Event probabilities 22 May-24 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 May 102
Predicted 22 May-24 May 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 21 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 May 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 May 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May-24 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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