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CX2SA > SWPC 23.05.15 23:20l 64 Lines 2290 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21293_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IW7BFZ<I3XTY<I0OJJ<VE3UIL<VE1MPF<N9PMO<CX2SA
Sent: 150523/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:21293 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:21293_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 May 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
23/1739Z from Region 2353 (N07W18). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 May,
25 May, 26 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 377 km/s at
23/0608Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23/0434Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/0456Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 295 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 May, 25 May, 26
May).
III. Event probabilities 24 May-26 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 May 098
Predicted 24 May-26 May 098/105/105
90 Day Mean 23 May 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May-26 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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